Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.     

经理任期、声誉效应与过度投资*——U型理论与经验证据

声誉效应可以缓解代理冲突并抑制过度投资,但其效果却随任期期限临近而衰退。本文理论分析了企业过度投资与经理任期之间的U型关系。以中国A股上市公司为样本,运用门限自回归实证模型,进行实证分析。本文研究发现：作为声誉效应的代理变量,经理任期对过度投资的影响呈U型。在经理任期达到特定门限值42个月之前,经理任期与过度投资呈负相关关系。在门限值之后,声誉效应逐渐失去作用,随着经理任期的增加,过度投资程度提高。     

扁平证券市场线和融资限制——中国股票市场的实证检验

资本资产定价模型（CAPM)在国际金融市场的实证检验结果往往呈现扁平证券市场线现象。一些学者认为融资限制是该现象的产生原因。本文旨在研究扁平证券市场线现象是否存在于中国股市,同时分析融资限制对中国股市证券市场线的影响。本文采用投资组合分析法对A股主板市场进行实证检验。本文研究发现：（1)扁平的证券市场线现象同样存在于中国股票市场中;（2)在中国股票市场中,融资限制与证券市场线的斜率呈负相关,与截距呈正相关,这符合融资限制理论;（3)以上两点发现同样存在于多因子定价模型中,这表明本文研究结果具有稳健性。       

农业水价综合改革的推进困境及成因分析——基于小农户风险视角

农业水价综合改革在部分地区进展相对滞后。利用制度变迁及制度配置理论,分析了农业水价综合改革推进困境的特征及成因。结果表明,农业水价综合改革推进困境的主要特征是部分地区小农户对农业水价提高的接受意愿较低,客观上造成精准补贴和节水奖励难以发挥作用。该困境的核心成因是奖补政策无法缓解改革中的小农户风险,具体表现为:小农户对已有非正式农业用水制度的路径依赖,催生了对农业水价新制度的适应风险;农村社会保障制度等相关初级制度不够完善,加剧了农业水价提高后小农户的生产和生活风险。提出应因地制宜地设计农业水价改革的微观主体管理模式,将生存灌溉补贴和农业保险补贴纳入奖补政策,完善农村基础设施和社会保障体系。     

What is going on when nothing is going on? Exploring the role of the consumer in shaping waiting situations

Research on waiting in services focuses mainly on the role of companies in waiting situations. Much of the existing research envisages the consumer as a passive victim of the delays caused by companies. This article redresses the imbalance in research on waiting by exploring the role of consumers in waiting situations. A qualitative methodology is used, involving data collection through in‐depth interviews and personal diaries, to facilitate an in‐depth analysis of consumers’ waiting experiences. Additionally, a holistic approach is employed with a view to examining the ‘whole’ waiting experience rather than individual or isolated aspects of waiting. The main finding of the study is that consumers play an active and deliberate role in waiting situations. This is the first study to empirically identify the behaviours and initiatives undertaken by consumers when forced to wait for services. The results suggest that consumers play an active role in organising and reducing the real or perceived waiting time. They actively seek information on the length and causes of the wait. And, on occasions, the consumer may also be the cause of the wait or may even increase the delay by their actions. In contrast to most of the existing research on the topic of waiting, this study adopt a qualitative, in‐depth approach, with a multicultural sample, and a focus on the consumer whose role in waiting has previously been overlooked.     

基于公共品资本化的地方财政激励制度研究*——土地财政如何影响公共品提供

本文以中国的城镇化为背景,运用公共品资本化原理,分析了地方土地财政制度,包括土地出让金收入制度与房地产相关税收制度,对地方公共品提供激励的传导机制。城市级面板数据的实证分析表明：土地财政对地方公共品提供具有结构性的激励效应,但该激励机制建立在土地和房产交易之上,地方财政努力程度被交易时点截然分割。改革土地财政制度,完善房地产税收体系,实现从交易型向保有型“土地溢价回收”制度转换,将有助于建立对称的、可持续的地方财政激励制度。     

How does the geographic export diversification–performance relationship vary at different levels of export intensity?

We argue that the relationship between geographic export diversification and firm performance follows an S-curve relationship if export intensity is low and an inverted U-shape if export intensity is high. The S-shape curve occurs because firms have weaker incentives to deploy the resources needed for succeeding in foreign markets if they generate relatively low revenues in export markets compared to their domestic market. Firms highly committed to export markets, in contrast, face stronger incentives to accelerate their learning curve, which results in an inverted U-shape relationship. We examine our hypotheses using a panel of longitudinal archival data with over 2000 firm-year observations, which cover all of the possible export destination countries served by large Brazil-based exporters from 2001 to 2010. Our results imply that the degree of export intensity changes the cost-benefit relationship of geographic export diversification.     

中国零售业“走出去”如何对接“一带一路”——一个理论模型

“一带一路”是我国在新的形势下提出的国家战略。共建“一带一路”的核心是以“五通”为主要内容的合作,这为我国包括零售业在内的企业“走出去”提供了巨大的空间选择和市场机遇。我国零售业海外目标市场选择、市场进入以及海外投资风险管理等关键的战略决策,与“一带一路”战略规划在理念上高度契合,在内容上高度重叠。为此,应该积极探索中国零售业“走出去”与“一带一路”两个战略的联动发展问题。文章基于零售业国际化的文献分析,结合“一带一路”建设的具体内容,构建中国零售业“走出去”对接“一带一路”的理论模型可以从融入途径、融入模式、融入战略、融入策略以及融入保障等方面来加以考虑。     

我国家庭信贷状况研究：基于CHFS微观数据的分析

文章利用中国家庭金融调查2013年发布的调查数据,分别构建非参数次序probit模型和Heckman模型检验了影响城乡家庭信贷约束状况和贷款可得性的相关因素。结果表明,户主受教育程度和家庭收入水平提高、家庭资产规模增加等都能缓解家庭的信贷约束,户主的党员身份、大学以上的受教育程度以及家庭资产规模等能提高家庭的贷款可得性,户主年龄、风险偏好等变量对家庭信贷规模的边际效应显著为负,而尽管城市家庭和东部地区家庭获得的贷款支持更多,但是城市家庭和东部地区家庭还是面临着更大信贷约束。     

模糊决策法在物流供应商选择中的运用

基于物流供应商在选择过程中所包含大量不确定和模糊因素,选择影响供应商选择的指标体系,运用模糊决策理论和方法,建立关于供应商选择的模糊决策模型,为合理选择供应商提供了一种量化方法。